Gus Malzahn OverHyped?

by Las Vegas Legend, James Jones on November 16, 2011

Is anyone other than me tired about hearing about how great Gus Malzahn is?  He should flee for the next head coaching job he is offered, because his stock has peaked and it is only going to get lower from here. 

Malzahn got very fortunate to have the greatest player in the SEC since Herschel Walker on his team.  Cam Newton is an offensive coordinator’s dream come true.  He can throw, he can run and he can get you first downs in short yardage situations. 

This is nothing new to me.  I have been saying it for two years.    Malzahn has the first few plays/series scripted out, then once the game wears on and situations change, he can’t keep up with the speed of the game.  It was obvious then, and it is obvious now.

Go back and look through the box scores of the games this season against their 7 SEC games and Clemson, and you’ll see how they score a majority of their points in the first half.  Also, this season against Arkansas and UGA, they scored all twenty one of their points in those two games in the first quarter.  For six quarters against two of the best teams they have faced, they scored 0 points. 

Opponent 2nd Half Points Total Points Percentage
Mississippi State

10

41

24%

Clemson

3

24

13%

South Carolina

7

16

44%

Arkansas

0

14

0%

Florida

10

17

59%

LSU

7

10

70%

Ole Miss

24

41

59%

UGA

0

7

0%

TOTAL

61

170

35%

Now, the obvious outlier there is Ole Miss.  If you take out Ole Miss, the percentage goes from 35 down to 28.  In the SEC, Auburn ranks 9th in the SEC -behind Florida!- at 24.2 ppg.  Auburn also ranks 9th in the SEC in scoring against teams with a winning record at a very poor 14.2 points per game.   (www.cfbstats.com)

It is also down from their very first season.  In 2009, Auburn was 3rd in the SEC scoring 33.3 ppg and against teams with a winning record, that number was 25.6 against FBS teams with a winning record.  And that was with Tubberville’s players not equipped to run that scheme.  Against the best teams on its schedule, Auburn is scoring 20 points per game WORSE in 2011 than in 2009.  What has happened to all that innovative recruiting?

I am not trying to hate on Auburn.  They Plainsmen have had a very difficult schedule, playing 4 teams in the top 13 on the road.  I also think Auburn has over achieved this season, doing better than I thought before the season began. 

But I am also tired of hearing how great Gus Malzahn is.  These stats clearly show three things:  1)  Auburn’s offense really suffers without Cam Newton, as would be expected 2) Gus Malzahn, once deviating from the script, cannot put his unit in a position to be successful as the game wears on 3) Good defenses have figured out how to stop Auburn.

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