MLB handicapping, NBA handicapping, NFL handicapping, College basketball and football handicapping. Uncover winners daily! The Las Vegas Legend uncovers winners for you!

Nice early winner today for my clients as they cashed in on the Crimson Tide getting 10.5 at Rupp Arena today.  Kentucky is bitte still struggling against the number as they 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games.

I have been concerned about the Wildcats longterm prospects this season.  They are very young and have been barely getting by in numerous ballgames (note close wins against pathetic Tennessee and Auburn).  But, I was impressed today.  Alabama is a very good basketball team despite looking lethargic the last couple of games.  The teams has talent (NBA talent), and with Anthony Grant’s aggressive coaching style has the ability of a deep run in March. 

Alabama was simply undervalued today.  Two straight losses with one embarrassing at home against Vandy caused bettors to oversell the Tide.  Despite it’s horrendous ATS number this season, Kentucky is still a popular bet with the public.  The Cats were actually #1 team bet on in Las Vegas today.  Alabama had a lot to prove especially after the last two losses.  Anthony Grant is also bitter about not making last season NCAA’s tourney.  Grant is determined that Alabama make it this season and will do whatever it takes to accomplish it.  For this reason alone, Bama will always be a good bet coming off a bad showing.  Grant is not going to allow this team to mail it in.

But, back to Kentucky.  The reasons I just mentioned was a reason I thought Kentucky could be primed for a home upset today.  Bama is a veteran team and had tons to prove today.  But Kentucky young Cats stood up to the test.  They battled and fought.  These are the kind of games this team needs to continue to mature for March.  Kentucky passed with flying colors in my view.  I would watch for a better maturing teams as we go forward.  And guess what, they might finally make the public some money back down the stretch.

{ 0 comments }

Now that the playoffs are finalized, Vegas was posted the odds this morning on who will win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay-9-4

New England 4-1

New Orleans 9-2

Baltimore 8-1

Pittsburgh 11-1

San Francisco 11-1

NY Giants 20-1

Atlanta 35-1

Detroit 40-1

Houston 40-1

Denver 50-1

Cincinatti 65-1

The big value play in the AFC is the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have a 1st round bye which is already factored into the number.  However, they are clearly the best defensive team in the playoffs.  Their offense often sputters which affect public support on the line.  They also lack the marketability of both New England and Green Bay.  Joe Flacco is also quietly improving.  He completed 72% of his throws against a pretty solid Bengals defense on Sunday in a huge spot. They also have SIX wins against teams with a winning record and played in the toughest division in football.  Big Value on Baltimore

Another team with value in the AFC is, yes, the Denver Broncos.  The Tebow hype was out of control and ridicuously exaggerated.  The guy is the last thing from being an NFL QB.  Despite this, the Broncos have a draw that could allow them to get to the AFC title game.   Then all bets are off.  Denver opens against Pittsburgh.  Ever since Big Ben missed time with a high ankle sprain he has not been the same.  I could see Denver winning a close one in the 1st round.  The Broncos would likely then play Baltimore.  While the Ravens are by far the best value, their lack of offensive firepower plays well here for Tebow and the Broncos.  Get to the AFC title game and all bets are off.

The team to avoid is the AFC title favorite New England Patriots.  The team had a great 13-3 record.  However they did not be a SINGLE TEAM with a record above .500.  There defense is awful.  I see no way that New England matches up favorably against Baltimore.  The Ravens have a far superb defense and have been through the mental grind of the AFC South.

In the NFC, I think the best value is with the New Orleans Saints.  Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the game, and Gregg Williams has taken a defense that was actually piss poor in their 2009 Super Bowl season to middle of the pack in the NFL.   Plus Drew Brees is such a solid leader and knows how Sean Payton wants his offensive system to operate.

A sleeper to watch is the Atlanta Falcons.  At 35-1 odds to make it to New Orleans, this team is actually more talented than the group that finished 13-3 in 2010 with the best record in the NFC.  They just haven’t clicked yet.  However, don’t be surprised if it happens in the playoffs.  The open play in the division round at New York.  The Giants are solid, but won a mediocre division.  The Eagles finished the year as the best team but injuries did them in.  Falcons will also be out to prove they are can make a deep run after 0-2 start in the playoffs under Mike Smith.

Avoid the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers are the best team in the NFL in 2011.  There is nothing to dispute that.  They should have finished with a perfect regular season.   However, it is going to be tough for Green Bay to win a Super Bowl with the NFL’s 32nd ranked defense.  They appear to be getting worse as the season progresses.  The Packers virtually handed the NFL’s comeback player of the year award to the Lions Matthew Stafford by allowing 523 yards and 5 TD passes.  That defense must improve, or there are going to be shocked Cheeseheads who will be canceling New Orleans reservations.

{ 0 comments }

The SEC website was pretty slow this morning as the schedule for the 2012 season was released.  Here is the week by week schedule as well as the schedule for all 14 member teams.

2012 SEC Football Schedule (Conference Games Only)
Week-by-Week
 
Aug. 30
South Carolina at Vanderbilt

Sept. 8
Auburn at Mississippi State
Florida at Texas A&M
Georgia at Missouri

Sept. 15
Alabama at Arkansas
Florida at Tennessee

Sept. 22
LSU at Auburn
Kentucky at Florida
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Missouri at South Carolina

Sept. 29
Ole Miss at Alabama
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Tennessee at Georgia
South Carolina at Kentucky

Oct. 6
Mississippi State at Kentucky
Arkansas at Auburn
LSU at Florida
Georgia at South Carolina
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt at Missouri

Oct. 13
Alabama at Missouri
Kentucky at Arkansas
Auburn at Ole Miss
Florida at Vanderbilt
South Carolina at LSU
Tennessee at Mississippi State

Oct. 20
Alabama at Tennessee
Auburn at Vanderbilt
South Carolina at Florida
Georgia at Kentucky
LSU at Texas A&M

Oct. 27
Ole Miss at Arkansas
Texas A&M at Auburn
Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
Kentucky at Missouri
Tennessee at South Carolina
Mississippi State at Alabama

Nov. 3
Alabama at LSU
Missouri at Florida
Ole Miss at Georgia
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Texas A&M at Mississippi State

Nov. 10
Texas A&M at Alabama
Arkansas at South Carolina
Georgia at Auburn
Mississippi State at LSU
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss
Missouri at Tennessee

Nov. 17
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Ole Miss at LSU
Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Nov. 24
Auburn at Alabama
LSU at Arkansas
Kentucky at Tennessee
Mississippi State at Ole Miss
Missouri at Texas A&M
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2012 SEC Football Schedule (Conference Games Only)
Team-By-Team

ALABAMA
Sept. 15: at Arkansas
Sept. 29: OLE MISS
Oct. 13: at Missouri
Oct. 20: at Tennessee
Oct. 27: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Nov. 3: at LSU
Nov. 10: TEXAS A&M
Nov. 24: AUBURN

ARKANSAS
Sept. 15: ALABAMA
Sept. 29: vs. Texas A&M
Oct. 6: at Auburn
Oct. 13: KENTUCKY
Oct. 27: OLE MISS
Nov. 10: at South Carolina
Nov. 17: at Mississippi State
Nov. 24: LSU

AUBURN
Sept. 8: at Mississippi State
Sept. 22: LSU
Oct. 6: ARKANSAS
Oct. 13: at Ole Miss
Oct. 20: at Vanderbilt
Oct. 27: TEXAS A&M
Nov. 10: GEORGIA
Nov. 24: at Alabama

FLORIDA
Sept. 8: at Texas A&M
Sept. 15: at Tennessee
Sept. 22: KENTUCKY
Oct. 6: LSU
Oct. 13: at Vanderbilt
Oct. 20: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 27: vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
Nov. 3: MISSOURI

GEORGIA
Sept. 8: at Missouri
Sept. 22: VANDERBILT
Sept. 29: TENNESSEE
Oct. 6: at South Carolina
Oct. 20: at Kentucky
Oct. 27: vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
Nov. 3: OLE MISS
Nov. 10: at Auburn

KENTUCKY
Sept. 22: at Florida
Sept. 29: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 6: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Oct. 13: at Arkansas
Oct. 20: GEORGIA
Oct. 27: at Missouri
Nov. 3: VANDERBILT
Nov. 24: at Tennessee

LSU
Sept. 22: at Auburn
Oct. 6: at Florida
Oct. 13: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 20: at Texas A&M
Nov. 3: ALABAMA
Nov. 10: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Nov. 17: OLE MISS
Nov. 24: at Arkansas

OLE MISS
Sept. 29: at Alabama
Oct. 6: TEXAS A&M
Oct. 13: AUBURN
Oct. 27: at Arkansas
Nov. 3: at Georgia
Nov. 10: VANDERBILT
Nov. 17: at LSU
Nov. 24: MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sept. 8: AUBURN
Oct. 6: at Kentucky
Oct. 13: TENNESSEE
Oct. 27: at Alabama
Nov. 3: TEXAS A&M
Nov. 10: at LSU
Nov. 17: ARKANSAS
Nov. 24: at Ole Miss

MISSOURI
Sept. 8: GEORGIA
Sept. 22: at South Carolina
Oct. 6: VANDERBILT
Oct. 13: ALABAMA
Oct. 27: KENTUCKY
Nov. 3: at Florida
Nov. 10: at Tennessee
Nov. 24: at Texas A&M

SOUTH CAROLINA
Aug. 30: at Vanderbilt
Sept. 22: MISSOURI
Sept. 29: at Kentucky
Oct. 6: GEORGIA
Oct. 13: at LSU
Oct. 20: at Florida
Oct. 27: TENNESSEE
Nov. 10: ARKANSAS

TENNESSEE
Sept. 15: FLORIDA
Sept. 29: at Georgia
Oct. 13: at Mississippi State
Oct. 20: ALABAMA
Oct. 27: at South Carolina
Nov. 10: MISSOURI
Nov. 17: at Vanderbilt
Nov. 24: KENTUCKY

TEXAS A&M
Sept. 8: FLORIDA
Sept. 29: vs. Arkansas
Oct. 6: at Ole Miss
Oct. 20: LSU
Oct. 27: at Auburn
Nov. 3: at Mississippi State
Nov. 10: at Alabama
Nov. 24: MISSOURI
 
VANDERBILT
Aug. 30: SOUTH CAROLINA
Sept. 22: at Georgia
Oct. 6: at Missouri
Oct. 13: FLORIDA
Oct. 20: AUBURN
Nov. 3: at Kentucky
Nov. 10: at Ole Miss
Nov. 17: TENNESSEE

{ 0 comments }

Betting on the bowl season can be tricky.  There are always a long layoff, the games are neutral sites often far away from the home campuses of the competing schools.  So actually knowing which team to bet and the teams will react in the environment is very tricky.

The key is to bet on the team that is excitied about being in the game and bet against the team that figures not to want to be there.  Take last night’s Boise State-Louisana Tech game for example.  TCU has played in the Poinsetta bowl 3 out of the last 6 seasons.  Many thought that TCU was the likely choice for the Sugar Bowl, but Virginia Tech was taken instead.  TCU has also played in BCS bowls two consecutive years, so going back to San Diego for the Poinsetta bowl had to be a downer.

Lousiana Tech on the other hand won their first WAC title since 1998.  They were pumped and excited about representing their conference in the Poinsetta Bowl.  They played like it too.  Leading for much of the game and falling short late 31-24, though covering as +11 dogs.

There are other factors to tell if a team is excited to be at a particular bowl game.  Always monitor tickets sales within the fan base.  If ticket sales are very slow for a school then it is likely that the players involved aren’t too excited about playing in the game either.  If they are high the team is likely jacked up and want to be put on a good showing.

So when betting on the bowls this holiday season check to see who actually wants to be there before placing your bet.

James

{ 0 comments }

Auburn entered the 2003 football season ranked #6 in the AP Poll and had Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown.  After starting the season with two lopsided losses to Southern Cal and Georgia Tech, Auburn was also beaten by Ole Miss and beaten handedly by LSU and UGA.  Due to the unraveling, the infamous secret meeting with Bobby Petrino took place (just for fun, click on the link and read some of the quotes by Petrino.  He truly is a snake in the grass.).

The prognosticators were a season off, and 2004 Auburn stormed through the SEC to a 13-0 undefeated regular season.  Tommy Tuberville didn’t raise the crystal football, but came awfully close. 

 6 years later, Auburn was 14-0 and this time, the defensive coordinator on the 2004 staff got to hold up the “whatever sponsor’s name it is this  year” trophy. 

After Auburn went undefeated in 2004, Auburn had a few decent seasons in 2005 and 2006, before struggling in 2007 and the wheels falling off the wagon completely in 2008.  You see this a lot in sports, but Tuberville was at Auburn for 10 years.  Fatigue had set in.  The administration had already tried to run him off.  85-40 and 10 years was enough to make everyone ready to part ways.

Auburn went:  9-3 in 2005, 11-2 in 2006, 9-4 in 2007 and 5-7 in 2008.  That is 16 losses in the four years since Auburn went undefeated.

Gene Chizik has a 29-10 record at Auburn, but 14-0 with Cam Newton and Nick Fairley and 15-10 without.  But regardless of whether or not Auburn cheated, which they did, to win the National Championship, they still won a National Championship.  And in college football, the way we determine a coach’s merit is based on if they win a national championship, even though the criteria to win one is not uniform from year to year (Mark Richt and Tommy Tuberville in recent memory). 

Gene Chizik has 5 losses since going undefeated (with the potential for 6).   Tuberville had 16 since his undefeated season before getting fired/force to resign/however you want to sugarcoat it. Chizik is already 1/3 of the way to getting to Tuberville’s loss total.  With the mess going on at the Plains right now, next year may not be any better.

{ 0 comments }

It is being reported throughout the news and blogosphere that Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is no longer a candidate for the North Carolina head coaching position.  Auburn’s offense has struggled with the departure of Cam Newton ranking only 79th in the FBS in total offense. 

However, there is no truth to this.  My sources at North Carolina have confirmed to me today that Malzahn interviewed for the job yesterday, and blew the athletic administration away.  My sources tell me that Malzahn is the leading candidate to get the job.

Also, do not believe anything you hear in regards to Malzahn and Ole Miss.  He has not interviewed for the job and it is doubtful that Archie Manning who leads the search committee will be interested.  Look for Ole Miss to hire a traditional SEC style coach who won’t run gimmick type offenses like Malzahn.

{ 0 comments }