Now that the playoffs are finalized, Vegas was posted the odds this morning on who will win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay-9-4
New England 4-1
New Orleans 9-2
Baltimore 8-1
Pittsburgh 11-1
San Francisco 11-1
NY Giants 20-1
Atlanta 35-1
Detroit 40-1
Houston 40-1
Denver 50-1
Cincinatti 65-1
The big value play in the AFC is the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have a 1st round bye which is already factored into the number. However, they are clearly the best defensive team in the playoffs. Their offense often sputters which affect public support on the line. They also lack the marketability of both New England and Green Bay. Joe Flacco is also quietly improving. He completed 72% of his throws against a pretty solid Bengals defense on Sunday in a huge spot. They also have SIX wins against teams with a winning record and played in the toughest division in football. Big Value on Baltimore
Another team with value in the AFC is, yes, the Denver Broncos. The Tebow hype was out of control and ridicuously exaggerated. The guy is the last thing from being an NFL QB. Despite this, the Broncos have a draw that could allow them to get to the AFC title game. Then all bets are off. Denver opens against Pittsburgh. Ever since Big Ben missed time with a high ankle sprain he has not been the same. I could see Denver winning a close one in the 1st round. The Broncos would likely then play Baltimore. While the Ravens are by far the best value, their lack of offensive firepower plays well here for Tebow and the Broncos. Get to the AFC title game and all bets are off.
The team to avoid is the AFC title favorite New England Patriots. The team had a great 13-3 record. However they did not be a SINGLE TEAM with a record above .500. There defense is awful. I see no way that New England matches up favorably against Baltimore. The Ravens have a far superb defense and have been through the mental grind of the AFC South.
In the NFC, I think the best value is with the New Orleans Saints. Sean Payton is the best offensive mind in the game, and Gregg Williams has taken a defense that was actually piss poor in their 2009 Super Bowl season to middle of the pack in the NFL. Plus Drew Brees is such a solid leader and knows how Sean Payton wants his offensive system to operate.
A sleeper to watch is the Atlanta Falcons. At 35-1 odds to make it to New Orleans, this team is actually more talented than the group that finished 13-3 in 2010 with the best record in the NFC. They just haven’t clicked yet. However, don’t be surprised if it happens in the playoffs. The open play in the division round at New York. The Giants are solid, but won a mediocre division. The Eagles finished the year as the best team but injuries did them in. Falcons will also be out to prove they are can make a deep run after 0-2 start in the playoffs under Mike Smith.
Avoid the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are the best team in the NFL in 2011. There is nothing to dispute that. They should have finished with a perfect regular season. However, it is going to be tough for Green Bay to win a Super Bowl with the NFL’s 32nd ranked defense. They appear to be getting worse as the season progresses. The Packers virtually handed the NFL’s comeback player of the year award to the Lions Matthew Stafford by allowing 523 yards and 5 TD passes. That defense must improve, or there are going to be shocked Cheeseheads who will be canceling New Orleans reservations.
